Economic growth could save Europe's political crisis?


Europe is a race against time。After a six-year economic crisis, extremist political parties across the European continent has been firmly established。In contrast, the European economy is now the situation is better than in recent years。The problem is that economic optimism can return quickly to prevent European political fallen off a cliff。  Very obvious signs of deterioration of the political。In France, the far-right party National Front (National Front) vote in regional elections over the weekend in France reached 25%, which confirms the party's strong performance in last year's European Parliament elections。French Prime Minister Manuel – Valls (Manuel Valls) warned that the National Front leader Marlene – Le Pen (Marine Le Pen) is indeed likely to win the presidential election in mid-2017。That same year, the British may vote from the European Union (EU)。Until then, the euro is likely to move towards disintegration, Greece exited the euro, while Italy will be out of the euro。  However, despite the political signs still pessimistic, but we have reason to hope for the economy。Two countries by the debt crisis and austerity of the most seriously affected – Spain and Ireland – a positive final recovery。The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 2% this year, Ireland's unemployment rate will soon fall below 10%。Even the Greek economy has returned to growth (before the latest developments in the crisis)。A broader point of view, oil prices, depreciation of the euro and the European Central Bank [microblogging] (ECB) monetary easing triple role, this year should give a huge boost EU economy。  Return to growth is likely to give some breathing space to bring Europe and blocking the emergence of political disaster。The challenge is clearly a correlation between economic difficulties and despite political extremism, but the relationship between the two is not clear。The collapse of the political center may be a lagged response to economic difficulties, which may be accompanied by the collapse of economic recovery emerge。For a particular example indicates that gloom and doom: the Nazis came to power in 1933, when the worst of the recession in Germany is over。  After these effects may continue to be some improvement in the economic data for a long time – a long-term recession or depression will not only bring economic difficulties, but also let the mainstream ideology loss of face, and arouse people's anger at the political elite。  In addition, the economic crisis is only one of the reasons the French sense of political extremism supported。Concerns and anger against immigrants corrupt elite supported the National Front, and prompted Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom the rise of political movements edge。  Return to growth is unlikely to completely resolve the EU's economic woes awareness。Throughout Europe, there is concern throughout the country is living beyond their means, they may have to accept a permanent reduction of living standards。In Greece, Portugal and Ireland, due to the financial crisis, this adjustment is occurring at a relatively rapid and brutal way, resulting in nominal wages and pensions have been cut。  However, even the most severe impact of the crisis has escaped the living standards of the country is also going through an adjustment, the biggest loss suffered by young。Youth unemployment in some countries terribly high: more than 50% in Spain, Italy, nearly 40%, France 23%, Britain 17%。In all these countries, it is feared that the rise of new generation will live as peacefully, unlike their parents。  Therefore, even when governments boast of relatively strong economic growth, people's political ruling class is no longer illusions。In the UK general election in May, has dominated post-war politics of the Conservative Party (conservative) and Labor (Labor) of the vote probably will reach a record low, while the votes nationalist parties in Scotland and England will be a strong rise。  Compared with many of its neighbors, the British political issue relatively mild。In Italy, all major opposition political parties now support to Italy leaving the euro zone, for this has traditionally been enthusiastic commitment to European integration of the country, this trend is noticeable。  Hungary consists of a semi-authoritarian government, extreme racist party Jobbik (Jobbik's) is on the rise。  But the most important thing is France。If Britain left the EU or Greece out of the euro, the European integration process will barely sustain。But if Le Pen elected French president, in fact, this would mean the disintegration of the European Union。  In order to avoid political tensions in France, the European Union has just allowed the French government again in violation of the provisions of the EU budget deficit。The National Front has been made in last weekend's election decisive breakthrough, which allow people to look forward to shoulder the task of economic recovery, "cavalry" would arrive in time to stabilize the situation in France。  Ultimately, however, to restore the health of the political system, France and other EU member states need more than just a moderate increase in economic growth。They need to mainstream politicians can draw a credible and optimistic picture for the future。Now it seems that not many signs。  Translator / Liang Yan Sang (FT Chinese Network)